So I started trying directly from Shortcuts any time it failed from the home screen icon and…mixed results, sometimes it works, sometimes not. When not, killing the Shortcuts app works to reset, as before.
I don’t think I’m regularly running any Shortcuts that would try to display a lot of data–these two home screen icons are 99% of my Shortcuts usage.
I’m kind of on the fence as to whether I should ever bother trying from Shortcuts again–giving that it might fail anyway, it seems like it’s more efficient to just kill the Shortcuts app on the first failure, given that I know that will make it work.
Thanks for your input on this, hopefully it’s the foundation of the information that will someday lead to a real fix! 
Dan